中金：维持滔搏“跑赢行业”评级 升目标价至3.4港元

Company Overview - CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Tmall (06110) at 0.21/0.26 HKD for FY26/27, with the current stock price corresponding to 12/10 times FY26/27 P/E, maintaining an outperform rating [1] - The target price is raised by 10% to 3.40 HKD, corresponding to 15/12 times FY26/27 P/E, indicating a 19% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Recent Performance - In Q1 FY26 (March to May), Tmall's total sales in retail and wholesale declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, consistent with the company's expectations [2][3] - The retail channel's sales decline was less severe than that of the wholesale channel, primarily due to a double-digit drop in same-store traffic [3] - The total sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the end of February, and by 12.3% year-on-year, although the average sales area per store continued to grow year-on-year [3] - Online sales grew year-on-year, with online direct sales accounting for approximately 40% of total direct sales [3] Inventory and Discounts - By the end of May, the total inventory decreased year-on-year, with the inventory-to-sales ratio remaining stable, aligning with management's expectations for inventory optimization [3] - The retail business experienced deeper discounts year-on-year due to inventory optimization and an increase in online business share, although the extent of discounting eased compared to the previous quarter [3] Category Performance - The professional sports category outperformed the overall market, while the mass sports category performed at an average level, and the sports leisure category faced relatively greater growth pressure [3] Future Outlook - In Q2 FY26, offline sales continue to be pressured by weak customer traffic, and online channel competition remains intense, particularly during the 618 shopping festival [4] - Management expects improvements in some brand orders in FY26 as product optimization and new elements are gradually introduced [4] - The company maintains its guidance for FY26, expecting net profit to remain flat year-on-year, with an improvement in net profit margin [4]