特朗普考虑“影子联储主席”，美元和美债收益率走低，美股三大指数走高，小米ADR涨超10%

Market Overview - Despite mixed economic data, US stock indices rose, with the S&P 500 approaching historical highs, driven by optimistic expectations around AI [2][10] - The market is increasingly betting on two interest rate cuts within the year, with the first potentially in September [2] - The US dollar index fell to a two-year low, while European stocks retraced some gains [2][4] Economic Data - Negative indicators include a downward revision of Q1 GDP to a contraction of 0.5%, an unexpected widening of the May trade deficit, and an increase in unemployment claims to a three-and-a-half-year high [2][8] - Positive indicators include a slight decrease in initial unemployment claims [2] Federal Reserve Insights - There are reports that Trump may announce a successor to Powell as early as September, potentially influencing market expectations for earlier rate cuts [3] - Federal Reserve officials remain divided on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some suggesting tariffs may not lead to sustained inflation increases [3] Stock Performance - Major US indices saw gains, with the Dow up approximately 0.6%, S&P 500 up over 0.4%, and Nasdaq up over 0.5% [10] - Tech stocks led the gains, with Micron Technology reporting strong demand for AI-related chips, and Meta and Nvidia also seeing significant increases [11] - Walgreens reported quarterly earnings exceeding market expectations, leading to a stock price increase of over 1% [13] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by about 0.5%, while the offshore and onshore RMB broke above 7.16 against the dollar, reaching a seven-month high [7][15] - Gold prices initially surpassed $3,350 per ounce but later declined, while oil prices saw two consecutive days of increases [19] Industry Trends - The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leaders agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is expected to benefit defense contractors significantly [13] - The market anticipates a surge in military orders due to increased defense spending, with stocks in the defense sector experiencing notable gains [13]