Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-26 16:14Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per ton, up from a previous estimate of $9,140 per ton, anticipating a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [2][4][23] - The ongoing Section 232 copper investigation in the U.S. has led to significant discrepancies between COMEX and LME copper prices, resulting in the U.S. over-importing approximately 400,000 tons of copper this year [2][5][18] - Despite a global copper surplus, concerns about regional shortages outside the U.S. have intensified, tightening the LME copper curve and leading to a significant spot premium [2][5][9] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects U.S. copper inventories to increase by 150,000 tons in Q3, followed by a decrease of 120,000 tons in Q4 after the implementation of tariffs [18][23] - The firm predicts a slight global copper surplus of 105,000 tons by the end of 2025, with a deficit of 100,000 tons in China and 200,000 tons in other regions [13][18] - The anticipated 25% tariff on copper imports by September is expected to further influence market dynamics, potentially leading to a significant increase in the COMEX-LME price spread [3][36] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its recommendation to go long on the December 2025 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage, citing that the current market is underestimating the risks of tariffs [3][36] - The firm has adjusted its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $10,000 per ton, down from $10,170 per ton, while still expecting a slight deficit in the market [30][34] - Concerns regarding solar demand growth have led to a downward revision of global solar demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027, impacting overall copper demand projections [31][33]