KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-26 22:21Group 1 - The price of Feitian Moutai has experienced a significant decline, with the price dropping to 1780 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 1830 yuan per bottle for boxed products, marking a daily decrease of approximately 70 yuan and 85 yuan respectively [2][4] - The wholesale price has decreased by 20% from the beginning of the year, with loose bottles dropping from 2220 yuan to 1780 yuan [2][4] - The rapid price decline has led many liquor merchants to halt purchases, exacerbating market panic and reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards a more cautious approach [4][10] Group 2 - The increase in production capacity by Moutai Group, from 90,000 tons in 2021 to nearly 130,000 tons now, has contributed to an oversupply in the market, while demand has slowed down [5][10] - The rise of e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com selling Feitian Moutai at prices hundreds of yuan below market value has intensified competition and pricing pressure [5][10] - Recent government policies, including stricter regulations on public banquets, have negatively impacted sales of premium liquor, reflecting a long-term effect similar to past restrictions [6][8] Group 3 - The economic environment in 2025, characterized by a slowdown in recovery and reduced consumer confidence, has further suppressed demand for high-end liquor [10][12] - The trend of stockpiling by investment-oriented consumers has led to increased market supply as they begin to sell off their inventory, further driving down prices [10][12] - The current price drop of Feitian Moutai signals a necessary adjustment period for the liquor industry, indicating a shift towards a more rational market environment [12]