JGJC(SZ:000799) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-27 07:36Core Viewpoint - The recent shareholders' meeting of JiuGuiJiu indicates a strategic shift, but declining attendance and changes in institutional holdings suggest that investors are losing patience with the company's short-term performance [1][15]. Financial Performance - JiuGuiJiu's revenue has plummeted from 34.14 billion in 2021 to 14.23 billion in 2024, with a growth rate dropping from 86.97% to -49.70% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders has decreased from 8.94 billion to 0.13 billion, representing a 97.72% decline year-on-year in 2024 [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit continued to decline by 30.34% and 56.78% respectively [2]. Product Strategy - The company is shifting its focus to a new product strategy centered around "two lows and one small" (low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small bottles) to address market demands [1][8]. - The core product series, Neican, saw its revenue contribution drop to 16.55% in 2024, while the JiuGui series contributed 58.66% but is under pricing pressure [3][4]. Market Competition - The low-end market is highly competitive, with established brands like Niulanshan and Hongxing dominating, alongside emerging brands like Jiangxiaobai and Fenjiu [8]. - The revenue contribution of the Xiangquan series, which targets the low-end market, is only 5.34%, indicating a lack of competitive advantage [8]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company approved a dividend of 6 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, distributing a total of 1.95 billion, despite a net profit of only 0.13 billion [10][11]. - This marks the second consecutive year of excessive dividends, which may strain cash flow, as the net cash flow from operating activities was -3.61 billion in 2024 [11]. Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings have significantly decreased, with the number of institutional investors dropping from 115 at the end of 2023 to just 10 by Q1 2025, and the total holding percentage falling from 42.76% to 38.38% [13].