KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-06-27 07:59Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly high-end baijiu represented by Moutai, is undergoing significant structural adjustments, facing challenges from strict regulations, seasonal demand fluctuations, and e-commerce impacts, leading to price volatility [1][5]. Price Trends - As of June 27, the wholesale reference price for 2025 Moutai is 1,870 RMB per bottle for original boxes and 1,800 RMB for loose bottles, showing a slight recovery from previous days [1]. - The wholesale price of Moutai has decreased nearly 20% within 2025, with prices dropping from 2,220 RMB and 2,315 RMB at the beginning of the year [2]. - On June 25, the price for loose Moutai hit a new low of 1,780 RMB per bottle, the lowest since 2018 [3]. Market Dynamics - The price drop has raised concerns among distributors, with 1,800 RMB seen as a critical cost line; falling below this may prompt Moutai to intervene [5]. - Moutai has initiated measures to stabilize prices, including limiting supply to certain channels and increasing market inspections [5]. - Moutai's management is collaborating with major e-commerce platforms like JD and Alibaba to enhance brand visibility and reach high-net-worth consumers [5]. Industry Outlook - Analysts predict a prolonged adjustment period for the industry, with expectations of a market bottoming out by the end of this year or early next year [6]. - The current market dynamics are influenced by cost, supply-demand relationships, and brand premium, with the latter being crucial for Moutai's pricing strategy [6]. - Moutai has revised its revenue growth target for 2025 down to 9%, marking the first downward adjustment since 2020 and the first time below 10% since 2016 [6].