产品老化、竞争激烈、品牌受损！汇丰大幅下调特斯拉未来三年利润预测

Core Viewpoint - HSBC warns that Tesla's profitability will continue to be disappointing, facing three significant challenges in scaling its Robotaxi business [1][3] Group 1: Delivery and Financial Forecasts - HSBC maintains a "reduce" rating on Tesla with a target price of $120, indicating a 63% downside from the current stock price [1][4] - Based on actual sales data from April and May, HSBC predicts that Tesla's Q2 delivery volume will remain flat quarter-over-quarter, which is 15% lower than market expectations [2][3] - The firm expects operational revenue to be 8% lower than consensus due to weak delivery volumes, with free cash flow expected to be slightly positive [2][3] Group 2: Challenges Facing Robotaxi - Tesla's Robotaxi business must overcome three major challenges: proving the robustness of its pure camera solution compared to competitors' sensor combinations, changing consumer perceptions about vehicle ownership, and demonstrating profitability in the Robotaxi operation [3] - Early signs from the Austin pilot raise concerns about the reliability of Tesla's approach [3] Group 3: Valuation and Business Segments - HSBC uses a DCF valuation and peer multiples, each accounting for 50% of the valuation, maintaining a target price of $120 [4] - The DCF valuation covers six business segments, including automotive, energy storage, full self-driving, Dojo, Optimus, and services, yielding a fair value of $180 per share [5]