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滔搏(06110.HK):一季度流水下滑中单位数 线上渠道销售正向增长

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mid-single-digit year-on-year decline in total sales for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, with retail performing better than wholesale and direct online channels outperforming offline channels [1][2] Sales Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, total sales in retail and wholesale business decreased by mid-single digits year-on-year, continuing the trend from FY25 Q3-Q4 [2] - Direct store sales area decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 12.3% year-on-year, with the decline in store numbers being managed through the closure of inefficient and loss-making stores [2] Inventory Management - As of the end of May, total inventory decreased year-on-year, aligning with sales trends, and the inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable [2] - The company is cautiously managing new orders and brand partner controls, indicating potential for optimization in inventory age structure while maintaining overall control [1][2] Discount Strategy - The increase in direct online sales proportion has led to a deeper discount in the first quarter, although the extent of discounting has moderated compared to the previous quarter [1][2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to gradually improve profitability due to its operational resilience and long-term cash returns, despite uncertainties in the current consumer environment and high industry discount levels [3] - The main brand client, Adidas, has maintained strong growth globally and in Greater China, with optimistic guidance for FY2025, anticipating high single-digit growth in currency-neutral revenue [3] - The company has also increased its focus on the outdoor segment, becoming the exclusive agent for brands like Norda, Norrona, and soar in the Chinese market, indicating potential for future growth [3] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, representing year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 12.6%, and 11.5% respectively [3] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 3.8 to 4.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 to 18 times for fiscal year 2026, with an "outperform the market" rating [3]