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Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant challenges in its core business, with declining sales, slow innovation, and increasing competition, leading to skepticism about its future growth and valuation potential. Group 1: Robotaxi and Future Plans - Tesla's Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) testing has begun in Texas with 20 Model Y vehicles equipped with FSD 13, aiming for a million Cybercabs by 2027 [1][3] - Elon Musk's announcement on social media led to an 8.23% stock price surge, but subsequent trading days erased those gains, indicating market skepticism [2] - The Robotaxi initiative is seen as a last-ditch effort to revive investor interest amid declining sales and innovation concerns [3] Group 2: Sales Performance and Challenges - Tesla's delivery growth has slowed significantly, with 2023 deliveries at 1.81 million, a 37.7% increase, but projected to decline to 1.79 million in 2024, a 1.1% decrease [5][6] - The main reasons for the sales slowdown include outdated models and delayed launches of new, more affordable vehicles [7][8] - The anticipated Model Q, aimed at boosting sales, has faced delays, further complicating Tesla's market position [9][11] Group 3: Profitability Issues - Tesla's gross profit margin has fallen below 10%, with Q1 2025 gross profit margin at 11.3%, significantly impacted by declining vehicle prices and increased competition [13][17] - The company's reliance on carbon credit sales has resurfaced, with carbon credit revenue accounting for 141.7% of net profit in Q1 2025, raising concerns about sustainable profitability [27][30] - Compared to BYD, Tesla's gross profit per vehicle has decreased sharply, with projections indicating a significant drop in overall gross profit from $17.6 billion in 2022 to $10.6 billion in 2024 [24][26] Group 4: FSD Revenue and Future Outlook - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription revenue has been slow to grow, with projections for 2025 indicating only $8.4 billion in confirmable revenue, insufficient to cover R&D costs [41][42] - The FSD revenue model is under scrutiny, as the company struggles to convert a large enough vehicle base into profitable subscription income [43]