三周连涨只是开始？美债多头押注降息助涨，周四非农报告或成“催化剂”

Group 1 - U.S. bond traders have successfully generated profits in the first half of the year despite market volatility, with a significant increase in bond yields and expectations of further gains driven by upcoming employment reports [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury market recorded its best monthly performance since February and the largest half-year gain in five years, despite challenges such as unpredictable policies from President Trump, tariff uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts, and downgrades from Moody's [1][2] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is approximately 4.28%, close to a two-month low, as investors shift focus from Trump's tax plan to the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank's George Catrambone noted that the market expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a significant increase in interest rate-related investments, particularly in 30-year U.S. Treasuries, due to strong foreign demand [2][5] - Investors' expectations for a July rate cut have shifted from nearly zero to a one-in-five chance, with a September cut almost certain, as traders prepare for potential actions based on key economic indicators [2][5] Group 3 - The upcoming employment report is crucial, with economists predicting a slowdown in job growth to approximately 113,000 new jobs, and an expected slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [5][6] - If the employment data is weak, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to act sooner than anticipated, especially if inflation remains manageable [6][8] Group 4 - The market is currently aligned with the Federal Reserve's expectations, and any positive surprises in the employment report could lead to volatility [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic conditions may keep yields stable, with predictions for the 2-year yield to reach 3.75% and the 10-year yield to be around 4.5% by the end of the year [7][8] Group 5 - Concerns exist that the Federal Reserve may fall behind the curve due to hesitance in recognizing economic conditions, with potential implications for future monetary policy decisions [8][9] - Discrepancies among Federal Reserve officials regarding the number of expected rate cuts this year could increase the risk of policy missteps, leading to a preference for shorter-duration bonds [8][9]