连涨三年！黄金上半年涨25%，2023年至今已涨80%

Core Insights - Gold has emerged as the best-performing asset class in the first half of the year, with spot gold prices rising by 25% [1] - The price of gold has been on a continuous upward trend for three years, with significant increases observed in 2023 and 2024 [2] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have optimistic forecasts for gold prices, predicting substantial increases in the coming years [3][4] Group 1: Price Trends and Predictions - Spot gold opened at $2,623 per ounce in 2023 and reached a peak of $3,499.45 per ounce on April 22, marking a rise of over 30% [1] - By June 30, 2023, the spot gold price was quoted at $3,280 per ounce, reflecting an 80% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, indicating an 80% increase from current levels [2][3] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The migration of funds from U.S. assets to gold could create a supply-demand imbalance, as even a small percentage shift (0.5%) could lead to a demand exceeding annual gold production [3] - The acceleration of de-dollarization is evident, with central bank reserves of dollars expected to drop to 57.4% in 2024, while gold reserves are projected to rise to 18.3% [3] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have doubled from $1,451 to $3,000 in just five years, indicating a faster growth rate compared to previous bull markets [3] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Gold has become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, with significant increases in gold purchases expected to continue [5][6] - Central banks are projected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year, with a notable increase in demand from emerging markets [6][7] - A recent survey indicates that over 90% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [7]