KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-01 23:25Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has been persistently low, hovering around 1400 yuan, and if it fails to hold this level, it may drop to 1300 yuan, which is only 100 yuan away from last year's rally starting point at 924 yuan, indicating that the current decline is beyond expectations [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Notable investor Duan Yongping expressed confusion over the market's fear regarding Guizhou Moutai, suggesting that the company's strong resource attributes and competitive moat should alleviate concerns [1] - Online responses to Duan's comments echoed his sentiment, emphasizing that Moutai's uniqueness and scarcity should hold significant value [1] Group 2: Consumer Outlook - The current market sentiment reflects uncertainty about future consumer spending, with a lack of anticipated reasons for market funds to flow back into consumption [3] - A potential rebound in the liquor sector, including Moutai, could occur if consumer confidence improves, particularly if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows signs of recovery or if there are new interpretations of alcohol prohibition policies [3] Group 3: Investment Perspective - The downward potential for Moutai appears limited, and while mid-term reversal probabilities may be low, the likelihood of an upward trend in the stock price is gradually increasing [4] - Investors currently holding Moutai or other liquor stocks are advised to remain patient and await a recovery rather than engaging in irrational short-selling [4]