若鲍威尔怂了、美联储提前降息，对市场意味着什么？

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on when the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs analysts outlining four scenarios for potential monetary easing and their cross-asset impacts [1][3]. Group 1: Scenarios for Rate Cuts - Scenario 1: If inflation data continues to improve or if the Fed believes tariff impacts are temporary, the 2-year Treasury yield may decrease by 25 basis points, leading to a rise in the stock market and a weakening of the dollar [4]. - Scenario 2: A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations could drive rate cuts, particularly if labor market and economic activity data worsen [5][6]. - Scenario 3: A combination of dovish policy and negative growth expectations would result in a slight decline in the stock market and a more significant drop in bond yields [8]. - Scenario 4: If the market prices in both dovish policy and a 50 basis point increase in growth expectations, risk assets would perform strongly, with significant stock market gains [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Across all scenarios, a consistent trend of declining yields, a weaker dollar, and rising gold prices is expected, while stock market direction will depend heavily on growth expectations [10]. - The market has begun to price in the Fed's easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [11].