Company Overview - Hushang Ayi was established in 2013, initially selling "whole grain milk tea" and shifted focus to fresh fruit tea in 2019, achieving rapid expansion nationwide [1] - The company ranks first in the North and third in China among mid-priced tea beverage brands, emphasizing high cost-performance and healthy freshly made drinks [1] - As of the end of 2024, Hushang Ayi operates 9,176 stores across the country, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities [1] Market Positioning - The company has a balanced store distribution between Northern and Southern markets, with approximately 4,784 stores in the North and 4,391 in the South by the end of 2024 [1] - Store distribution shows a high concentration in third-tier and below cities, accounting for about 50.4% of total stores, while first-tier cities only represent 7.5% [1] Brand Development - Hushang Ayi has three main brands: the original Hushang Ayi, Huka, and the newly launched Tea Waterfall, with a total of 8,683, 1,700, and 492 stores respectively by the end of 2024 [2] - The average daily GMV per store is around 4,000 yuan, with a slight decline due to industry challenges, and the average order value is 25 yuan [2] Industry Analysis - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market has seen rapid growth, with GMV increasing from 187.8 billion yuan in 2018 to 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 22.5% [3] - The ready-to-drink tea segment holds the largest market share, accounting for 50% of the total market in 2023, while ready-to-drink coffee has the fastest growth rate at a CAGR of 36.3% from 2018 to 2023 [3] Competitive Landscape - The ready-to-drink tea industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top five brands holding a market share of 46.9% in 2023, where Hushang Ayi holds 5% [3] - The industry is entering a competitive phase, with no clear leader emerging yet, indicating potential for future market share battles [4] Future Growth Potential - Hushang Ayi has significant room for store expansion, with estimates suggesting a potential ceiling of 20,000 to 40,000 stores nationwide [4] - The company is pursuing a multi-brand strategy, targeting different market segments, particularly in the 10-20 yuan price range, which is currently competitive [5] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 28%, 19%, and 15% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth at 46%, 33%, and 17% respectively [6] - The expected EPS for the same period is 4.57 yuan, 6.07 yuan, and 7.09 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 25x, 19x, and 16x [6]
沪上阿姨(2589.HK)：北方茶饮王者 多品牌齐发力