Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-02 03:03Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is undergoing subtle changes, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its interest rate cut expectations from a single cut in December to three cuts starting in September, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic environment and inflation trends [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that preliminary evidence suggests the impact of tariffs on inflation is less severe than previously expected, with May's personal consumption expenditure data showing an unexpected decline due to the fading effects of pre-tariff purchasing [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that without the Trump administration's tariff policies, the Fed would likely have begun cutting rates this year, indicating that tariffs have significantly raised inflation forecasts [3]. Group 2: Divergence in Market Expectations and Policy - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with 10 officials advocating for at least two cuts this year while 7 officials express concerns over persistent price pressures from tariffs [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintains a forecast for one cut this year and three cuts by 2026, emphasizing the gradual impact of tariffs on prices and the need for more information before making rate adjustments [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Outlook - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that if tariffs remain around 10%, the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of 2025, contingent on the resolution of tariffs by July [5]. - Several investment banks, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, expect the Fed to cut rates three times in 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting two additional cuts in 2026, bringing the final rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [5].