美国关税收入年化已高达3270亿美元，大摩：这么庞大的税收，无论谁付，对经济都不是好事

Core Insights - The U.S. customs revenue has reached an astonishing scale, annualized at $327 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP [1][4] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that this substantial tax revenue will negatively impact economic growth, regardless of whether the burden falls on producers or consumers [1][10] Revenue Scale - U.S. customs net revenue increased significantly from $15.6 billion in April to $22.2 billion in May, and then to $27.3 billion in June, indicating a clear upward trend [5] - The annualized customs revenue of $327 billion is equivalent to 65% of the projected corporate income tax for 2024 and 32% of non-withheld personal income tax [4][5] Corporate Profitability Pressure - The impact of tariffs on corporate profitability is becoming evident, with the annualized tariff cost representing 15% of after-tax profits for non-financial companies [6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7%, below the 15-year average of 12.2% [8][10] Economic Growth Risks - Morgan Stanley warns that the large tax revenue from tariffs will not support economic growth, aligning with their economists' outlook of "downside risks" for the U.S. economy [10] - Air passenger volume growth has slowed to only 1.7% year-over-year as of May, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic growth rate of about 6% [11] Investment Recommendations - Given the increased economic downside risks, Morgan Stanley recommends going long on U.S. Treasuries and shorting the dollar, anticipating further declines in interest rates [14] - Investors are advised to monitor market movements around July 9, suggesting to increase long positions in U.S. Treasuries in response to rising yields due to tariff news [14]