Deutsche Bank AG(US:DB) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-02 10:45Group 1 - The European banking sector delivered its best performance since 1997 in the first half of 2025, with the Stoxx 600 Bank Index rising by 29%, and many leading stocks reaching their highest levels in a decade [1] - The net interest margin, which had benefited from the European Central Bank's interest rate hikes and recovering loan demand, is expected to decline as interest rates are projected to decrease, potentially compressing banks' profit margins [1][4] - Investors will focus on cost control and non-interest income as banks face the challenge of maintaining profitability without the tailwind of significant interest rate hikes [1][4] Group 2 - Valuation recovery has been largely priced in, with Deutsche Bank, UniCredit, and Santander seeing stock price increases between 50% and 80% year-to-date, and their price-to-book ratios moving above the ten-year average [3] - If economic growth falls short of expectations or credit costs rise, current valuations may lack a safety cushion, especially given the weak manufacturing sentiment and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - M&A-driven premiums are becoming harder to replicate, as evidenced by the cautious stance of potential buyers regarding high premiums and capital usage, with UniCredit's CEO stating they are no longer considering acquiring Deutsche Bank [3] Group 3 - The second half of the year will be determined by the quality of real earnings, cost management, and asset quality cycles, as the market transitions into a period of interest rate cuts and regulatory changes [4] - The key question is which banks can maintain stability and profitability in a cooling market, as this will dictate the sector's performance in the latter half of the year [4]