ADP(US:ADP) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-02 16:27Group 1 - The U.S. private sector employment market has shown its first negative growth signal in over two years, primarily concentrated in the services sector, raising concerns about the pace of labor market slowdown [1] - The ADP report indicates that private sector employment increased by only 29,000 in May, followed by a decrease of 33,000 in June, which was unexpected by economists [1] - The services sector experienced a significant job loss of 66,000 in June, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [4] Group 2 - Following the ADP data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, stock index futures declined, and the dollar's gains narrowed, leading traders to increase bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July rose from 20.7% to 24.3% after the ADP data was published [2] - The average employment growth rate over the three months ending in May has slowed to 18,700, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [4] Group 3 - Employment numbers decreased by 24,000 in the Midwest and 20,000 in the West, while only the South saw a net increase [4] - Large enterprises with over 500 employees added 30,000 jobs, while small businesses with fewer than 20 employees saw a net loss of 29,000 jobs [4] - The proportion of consumers who believe "job opportunities are plentiful" fell to its lowest point in over four years in June [4]