SDHH(SZ:000822) Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-02 23:20Group 1 - Current soda ash prices are below the production costs of most companies and significantly discounted in the spot market, but the supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, leading to limited sustainability in price rebounds [1][3] - The soda ash market is currently characterized by oversupply, with production capacity remaining stable and a high operating rate of around 85% in June, despite some companies undergoing maintenance [1][2] - The float glass industry, a key downstream sector, is experiencing weak demand and increasing losses, which may lead to a further decline in soda ash demand if no policy stimulus occurs [2][3] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the price of soda ash is between 950 to 970 yuan per ton, with delivery costs estimated at 1230 to 1250 yuan per ton, suggesting a potential for arbitrage if spot prices do not rise significantly [3] - The light soda ash demand remains weak, with downstream companies maintaining low operating rates and poor stocking intentions, indicating a lack of recovery in demand [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a notable decline in the photovoltaic glass market, further contributing to the pressure on soda ash demand [2]