光伏“主旋律”，仍是反“内卷”

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a downturn after a brief surge in demand due to policy incentives, with prices declining significantly across the supply chain [2][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of the year, the photovoltaic industry saw a "rush to install" driven by policies like the "136 Document," but this has since subsided, leading to a decline in prices [2]. - As of July 2, the average trading price of dense silicon material is approximately 35 yuan/kg, down 2.7% month-on-month and over 10% compared to the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year decline of 46.2% [3]. - The average trading price of N-type 182-183.75mm silicon wafers is currently 0.88 yuan/piece, down 7.4% month-on-month and 58% compared to the beginning of the year [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Major silicon material manufacturers are struggling to secure orders due to low prices, leading to a continuous decline in market averages [5]. - The "six giants" in the silicon material sector are reportedly considering a special fund to consolidate existing production capacity, indicating some progress in industry integration [5]. - The average trading price of N-type 182-183.75mm TOPCon battery cells is 0.23 yuan/W, reflecting an 8% month-on-month drop and a 51.1% decline since the beginning of the year [10]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, including overcapacity and a lack of clear policies following the "531 rush," which has led to a pessimistic outlook for downstream investment [12][14]. - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [14]. - The industry is urged to break the "involution" cycle to achieve high-quality development, as highlighted in recent discussions and reports [13][14].