Flat(SH:601865) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-07-03 09:33Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a significant rally, with major companies planning to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate intense competition and improve supply-demand balance [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic glass index rose by 6.46%, with several stocks, including Dongfang Risen and Kaisheng New Energy, hitting the daily limit [1] - Anticipated production cuts are expected to decrease domestic glass output to around 45GW in July [1] Group 2: Production Cuts - The actual reduction actions began in mid-June, with uncertainty about whether the 30% target will be met [1][2] - Some companies, like Fulete and Tuojin New Energy, have not confirmed participation in the production cuts, indicating a lack of consensus among firms [2][3] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - Current inventory levels have increased, with typical glass inventory days rising from just over 20 days to around 34 days [2][3] - Photovoltaic glass prices have dropped significantly, with 2.0mm glass averaging 11 CNY/sqm, below the cost line, and a year-on-year decline of 24% [4][6] Group 4: Financial Impact - Major companies are facing substantial profit declines, with Fulete's net profit down 63.52% and other firms like Nanfang A and Jinjing Technology experiencing declines of over 80% [6] - The ongoing price drop has led to losses for several companies, with expectations for recovery contingent on improved component demand and pricing stability [6][7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The recovery of glass prices is dependent on two main factors: the price of soda ash and the stability of component demand, with projections suggesting potential recovery by late August or September [7] - The domestic photovoltaic glass industry holds 90% of global capacity, facing challenges from export policies and a shift towards Southeast Asian markets for future growth [8]