当价格在1100元/吨附近持续震荡时，当前纯碱市场的核心矛 盾，已经从单纯的价格涨跌，演变为不同生产工艺路线之间的 成本竞赛。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 2025年12月16日上午，郑州商品交易所纯碱期货主力合约SA401在窄幅区间内来回波动。 截至16日下午3点收盘，SA401合约报收于1463元/吨，当日下跌2.66%。这一价格高于主流成 本（1050到1200元/吨）区间。连日来的市场震荡表明，事关成本线的拉锯战仍在持续。 前一交易日（12月15日），该合约收于1126元/吨。而在一周前的12月11日，其1094元/吨的 收盘价曾一度击穿市场心理关口，因该价格已跌近上述成本区间下沿，跌破许多企业的现金成本 （维持短期生产必须支付的真金白银）。 看似平淡的盘面背后，一场"成本线拉锯战"已经打响。其中，拥有资源优势的天然碱法成本可低 于1000元/吨，而占据市场主流的联碱法工艺成本中枢正是1050到1200元/吨，部分老旧的氨碱 法成本则高于1300元/吨。当前价位，恰好使不同工艺企业的盈利状况出现"生死"分野。 作为玻璃、光伏面板等产业的基础化工原料，纯碱价格的拉锯正牵动全产业链。从上游的远兴能 源、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry has shown significant developments, including a major order for humanoid robots from a leading AI model company, valued at over 50 million RMB, highlighting the integration of AI and robotics [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set the agenda for 2026, focusing on energy independence and green transformation, which will drive the demand for renewable energy solutions [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing market pricing for centralized renewable energy generation, as outlined by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Aiyu Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy - B - Daqo New Energy (688303.SH) - Buy - B - Haibo Innovation (688411.SH) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Deye Technology (605117.SH) - Buy - A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy - B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy - A - Hengdian East Magnet (002056.SZ) - Buy - A [3][4][7] Price Tracking - The average price of polysilicon remains stable at 52.0 RMB/kg, while the average price of silicon wafers and battery cells has shown signs of stabilization after previous declines [6][8][9] Investment Suggestions - Key recommendations focus on various sectors: - BC new technology: Aiyu Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy - Supply-side: Daqo New Energy, Fulete - Energy storage: Haibo Innovation, Sungrow Power Supply, Deye Technology - Market-oriented: Langxin Group - Domestic substitution: Quartz Co., Ltd. - Overseas expansion: Hengdian East Magnet, Bowei Alloy [10]

（原标题：纯碱期价：打响成本线拉锯战） 经济观察报记者 王雅洁 2025年12月16日上午，郑州商品交易所纯碱期货主力合约SA401在窄幅区间内来回波动。 市场正在等待下午3点的收盘钟声，以确认价格能否守住1050到1200元/吨这一关键成本区间。 前一交易日（12月15日），该合约收于1126元/吨。而在一周前的12月11日，其1094元/吨的收盘价曾一 度击穿市场心理关口，因该价格已跌近上述成本区间的下沿，并跌破了许多企业的现金成本，即维持短 期生产必须支付的真金白银。 看似平淡的盘面背后，一场"成本线拉锯战"已经打响。其中，拥有资源优势的天然碱法成本可低于1000 元/吨，而占据市场主流的联碱法工艺成本中枢正是1050到1200元/吨，部分老旧的氨碱法成本则高于 1300元/吨。当前价位，恰好使不同工艺企业的盈利状况出现"生死"分野。 作为玻璃、光伏面板等产业的基础化工原料，纯碱价格的拉锯正牵动全产业链。从上游的远兴能源、中 盐化工，到下游的信义玻璃、福莱特，无不密切关注。 华东一家玻璃企业的采购经理向经济观察报表示，他们已将原料库存压缩至仅够一周使用的极限，并暂 停长协采购，完全采取"随用随买、价低者 ...

Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and combating "involution" in competition, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development [6][15] - The report suggests that the cement, glass, and certain consumer building materials industries may see continued optimization in supply-side dynamics, leading to increased concentration and improved profitability [6][15] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a recovery in retail due to high demand for second-hand housing and supportive subsidy policies, with leading companies showing strong operational resilience [6][31] - Long-term demand stability and increasing industry concentration provide significant growth potential for quality leading companies in the consumer building materials sector [6][31] - Key companies to watch include Sanke Tree, Rabbit Baby, Hanhai Group, Dongfang Yuhong, China Liansu, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and others [6][31] Cement - National cement market prices increased by 0.05% week-on-week, with the average price at 355 RMB/ton as of December 12, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 69.17% [6][31] - The report anticipates that cement prices will maintain a slight fluctuation in the future, with industry valuations at historical lows, highlighting companies like Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others for potential investment [6][31] Glass - Float glass prices are showing mixed trends, while photovoltaic glass inventories continue to rise, with the average price of float glass at 1156 RMB/ton, down 1.0% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year [6][31] - The report indicates that leading glass companies have low valuations and suggests focusing on Qibin Group, Xinyi Solar, and others for investment opportunities [6][31] Fiberglass/Carbon-based Composites - The market for fiberglass is stable, with direct yarn prices holding steady, while electronic yarn prices have stabilized after previous increases [6][31] - The report identifies leading companies in the fiberglass sector, including China Jushi and others, as having a significant competitive edge [6][31] Market Data and Trends - The report notes that the consumer building materials sector has seen a year-on-year revenue decline of 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable improvement in revenue growth rates for leading companies [33][34] - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector is stabilizing, with net profit margins hovering at the bottom, indicating potential for recovery as market conditions improve [34][41]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in the building materials sector as it transitions from a period of intense competition to one focused on value extraction and growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in the Building Materials Sector - Four key investment themes are highlighted: traditional building material leaders emerging from the bottom of the cycle, overseas capacity expansion, high-demand new materials, and policy support for industry consolidation [5]. - Traditional building material leaders are expected to recover first, with a focus on alpha opportunities as the sector stabilizes [14]. - The overseas expansion of building material capacity is driven by high demand in foreign markets, particularly in Africa, where Chinese companies are increasingly investing [20][22]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is stabilizing, with a narrowing decline in real estate indicators expected in 2026, leading to a potential rebound in demand [15]. - Strong alpha leaders in the sector are anticipated to achieve positive revenue growth first, with companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong highlighted as key players [15][16]. - Profit margins are expected to improve in 2026 due to price stabilization, structural optimization, and enhanced operational efficiency [15]. Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with demand expected to grow by 5.8% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 [5][25]. - The report notes that the profitability of traditional glass fiber products is on an upward trajectory, with leading companies benefiting from differentiated product advantages [5][28]. Group 4: Cement Industry - The domestic cement market is facing a decline in demand, with expectations of a 7% drop in 2025 and a 6% drop in 2026, while overseas markets remain robust [5][31]. - The report suggests that supply-side policies will play a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with potential profitability improvements anticipated in 2026 [5][36]. Group 5: Glass Industry - The glass industry is expected to see supply optimization as a key theme in 2026, with a slight decline in demand for float glass anticipated [5][40]. - The photovoltaic glass segment is projected to experience a balanced supply-demand situation, with potential profitability improvements if production resumes [5][45].

Core Insights - The glass industry is characterized by its heavy asset nature, with leading companies in float and photovoltaic glass having fixed assets and construction projects accounting for approximately 60% and 40% of their revenue respectively [4] - The supply side of the glass industry is subject to strict regulations, with the new 2024 policy prohibiting the addition of new flat glass capacity nationwide, emphasizing a zero-increment approach in key areas [4] - Demand for float glass is primarily driven by the real estate sector, with a forecasted contraction in demand over the next two to three years, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow [5] - The cost structure of the glass industry is heavily influenced by raw materials and energy, which together account for over 80% of total costs, leading to significant profit sensitivity to fluctuations in prices of soda ash and fuel [6] - Leading companies maintain competitive advantages through scale and vertical integration, with significant revenue gaps widening between top-tier firms and others in the industry [7][8] Supply Side Analysis - The glass production process is dominated by the float method, which accounts for 80%-90% of total production, while the upstream consists of inorganic raw materials like silica sand and soda ash [3] - The design lifespan of glass production lines is typically 8-10 years, necessitating continuous production once operational, which contributes to supply rigidity [4] - The cyclical nature of the glass supply side indicates that during upturns, supply is an independent variable, while in downturns, it becomes a dependent variable [4] Demand Side Analysis - The primary demand for float glass comes from housing construction and the automotive sector, with housing being the dominant factor [5] - The photovoltaic glass market is driven by the growth in solar installations and the penetration rate of dual-glass technology, with expectations of continued growth in global and Chinese solar installation capacity through 2030 [5] Cost Structure & Profitability - The profitability of float glass companies has seen a widening gap in gross margins, with leading firms experiencing a 14 percentage point increase to a 20 percentage point difference from 2015 to 2024 [6] - The photovoltaic glass sector shows a smaller margin difference, indicating a more stable competitive landscape compared to float glass [6] Competitive Advantage Analysis - Scale advantages and integrated supply chains are crucial for leading companies to maintain low-cost positions, with top firms like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group showing significant revenue leadership [7][8] - Leading companies are increasing their self-supply ratios for raw materials, such as silica sand, to mitigate cost pressures and enhance profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-metallic building materials sector [6]. Core Insights - The glass industry is characterized by heavy asset attributes and continuous production, leading to rigid supply dynamics. The report highlights the structural differentiation between float glass and photovoltaic glass, indicating that the float glass sector is experiencing a downward cycle while photovoltaic glass is entering a growth phase [8][10]. Supply and Production Characteristics - The float glass production process is the mainstream method, accounting for 80%-90% of total production. The industry is heavily reliant on raw materials such as silica sand and soda ash, with fixed assets and construction in progress representing approximately 60% and 40% of total revenue for float and photovoltaic glass leaders, respectively [1][2]. - The glass production lines have a design lifespan of 8-10 years, necessitating continuous operation once ignited, which creates supply rigidity. The report notes that the supply side is influenced by policies that restrict new capacity and require capacity replacement [2][42]. Demand Analysis - Demand for float glass is primarily driven by the real estate sector and automotive industry, with real estate construction area being the leading factor. The report predicts a contraction in float glass demand over the next two to three years, although the decline will narrow [2][3]. - Photovoltaic glass demand is driven by the growth in photovoltaic installations and the penetration rate of double-glass modules, with expectations for continued growth in global and Chinese photovoltaic installations until 2030 [2][3]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure of the glass industry is dominated by raw materials and energy, accounting for over 80% of total costs. Float glass is sensitive to raw material prices, while photovoltaic glass is more sensitive to energy prices [3]. - The report indicates that the gross margin gap between leading and lagging companies in the float glass sector has widened from 14 percentage points to 20 percentage points from 2015 to 2024, reflecting increased profitability for leading firms [3]. Competitive Advantage Analysis - Scale advantages and vertical integration are key factors for leading companies to maintain low-cost advantages. The report highlights that leading firms like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group have significantly outperformed their peers in revenue scale, further widening the gap [4]. - Leading companies are increasing their self-supply ratio of raw materials to reduce production costs, with Qibin Group's self-supply ratio of silica sand increasing from 48% in 2019 to 70% in 2024 [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the float glass sector, the report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group, as the trend of increasing concentration among leading firms is expected to continue [4][10]. - In the photovoltaic glass sector, the report anticipates a wave of small and medium-sized enterprises exiting the market, leading to increased concentration among leading firms like Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass [4][10].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或 完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該 等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 福萊特玻璃集團股份有限公司 Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd. （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：6865） 海外監管公告 本公告乃由福萊特玻璃集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則 第13.10B條作出。 以下為本公司於上海證券交易所網站刊登之《福萊特玻璃集團股份有限公司關於調整公司與嘉興凱 鴻福萊特供應鏈管理有限公司及其子公司2025年度日常關聯交易預計額度的公告》，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 董事長 阮洪良 中國浙江省嘉興市，二零二五年十二月十二日 在本公告之日，執行董事為阮洪良先生、姜瑾華女士、阮澤雲女士、魏葉忠先生和沈其甫先生， 獨立非執行董事為徐攀女士、杜健女士和吳幼娟女士，職工董事為鈕麗萍女士。 | 证券代码：601865 | 证券简称：福莱特 | 公告编号：2025-082 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

| 证券代码：601865 | 证券简称：福莱特 公告编号：2025-082 | | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113059 | 转债简称：福莱转债 | 福莱特玻璃集团股份有限公司 关于调整公司与嘉兴凯鸿福莱特供应链管理 有限公司及其子公司 2025 年度日常关联交易预计额度的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●福莱特玻璃集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）本次调整与嘉兴凯鸿 福莱特供应链管理有限公司及其子公司凯鸿福莱特物流（越南）有限公司（以下 合称"凯鸿福莱特"）2025 年度日常关联交易预计额度，所涉及金额无需提交 公司股东会审议。 ●公司本次调整与凯鸿福莱特 2025 年度日常关联交易预计额度系基于双方 业务实际开展情况而做出，所涉及交易系本公司与凯鸿福莱特遵循公平、公正、 合理的市场化定价原则，对公司生产经营实际情况起到了积极作用。上述关联交 易没有损害公司和股东，特别是中小股东权益情形，不会对公司独立性产生影响， 公司亦不会因此类交易而对关联人形成依赖。 一、日常关联 ...

此外，根据国家能源局数据，10月国内光伏新增装机12.6GW，同比下滑38.3%，环比增长30.4%；据 SMM，11月光伏组件整体产量环比10月下降2.43%。InfoLink判断，虽然电池片环节减产明显，但终端 需求疲软问题未解。应行情波动，仍有电池片厂家不排除后续进一步减产，本周市场观望情绪强烈，整 体价格走势仍需静待上下游博弈结果，预期短期内电池片价格仍以持稳为目标。 消息面上，据澎湃报道，有消息称备受关注的多晶硅产能整合收购平台已正式成立。公司名称为北京光 和谦成科技有限责任公司，注册资本30亿元。据智通财经记者从企查查获悉，通威股份（600438）控股 孙公司持股光和谦成30.35%；协鑫科技子公司持股16.79%，东方希望、大全能源、新特能源和亚洲硅 业持股比例分别为11.3%、11.13%、10.12%和7.79%。股东共计10家企业，其中9家为硅料生产企业。 光伏股继续走低，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)跌3.84%，报7.26港元；信义光能(00968)跌3.21%，报3.02 港元；福莱特（601865）玻璃(06865)跌2.4%，报9.77港元。 ...