赛道Hyper | 英特尔“考虑”停推18A制程技术

Core Viewpoint - Intel is considering a strategic shift in its foundry business, potentially halting the promotion of the Intel 18A process technology to external clients and focusing on the Intel 14A process instead [1][2][5]. Group 1: Strategic Adjustments - Intel's CEO Lip-Bu Tan is contemplating stopping the promotion of the Intel 18A process to external clients, with a decision expected by September [1][2]. - This is not the first instance of Intel employing a "leapfrog" strategy, as it previously skipped the Intel 20A node to focus on Intel 18A to reduce capital expenditures [2][4]. - The decision reflects a broader strategic contraction due to challenges in the advanced process competition, which may have significant financial implications for Intel [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Intel's foundry division reported a net loss of $13.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 71.28% of the company's total loss of $18.8 billion [2]. - The estimated investment in the 18A and related technologies has already cost several billion dollars, and halting its promotion could lead to asset impairment in the range of hundreds of millions to billions [2][3]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Intel's foundry business has a market share of 6.5% in the global Foundry 2.0 market, which is expected to reach $72 billion in revenue by Q1 2025, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth [4]. - The company is currently only collaborating with Amazon and Microsoft for external clients on the 18A process, with limited short-term revenue potential [3][5]. Group 4: Future Directions - Despite potentially stopping external promotion of the 18A process, Intel plans to continue using it for its own products, including the upcoming Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest processors [6][7]. - Intel aims to allocate more resources to the Intel 14A process, which is projected to offer significant performance improvements over the 18A process [7][8]. - The Intel 14A process is expected to utilize advanced technologies that could provide cost advantages, although the approval for this shift remains uncertain [8][9]. Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the news of the potential halt in promoting the 18A process, Intel's stock price fell by 4.25% as investors reacted to the strategic considerations [9].