Barclays(US:BCS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-04 04:03Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that while the non-farm employment data appears strong on the surface, deeper details reveal signs of a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold in July and may not consider rate cuts until December [1] Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding Barclays' expectation of 100,000 and the market consensus of 106,000 [2] - The three-month moving average reached 150,000, up from 130,000 a year ago [2] - Nearly half of the job growth came from government sectors, with 73,000 new positions, primarily in state government education [3] Group 2: Private Sector Employment - Private sector job growth significantly slowed from 137,000 to 74,000, with service industries contributing only 68,000 jobs [3] - The goods-producing sector added 6,000 jobs, with construction increasing by 15,000, while manufacturing and mining saw declines of 7,000 and 2,000, respectively [3] Group 3: Household Survey Insights - The household survey presents a more complex employment picture, with the unemployment rate dropping by 13 basis points to 4.1%, primarily due to a decrease in the labor force participation rate [6] - The labor force shrank by 130,000, while household employment rose by 93,000 [6] - The broader underemployment rate (U6) slightly decreased to 7.7%, indicating some slack in the labor market [9] Group 4: Wage Growth and Income Trends - Wage growth showed signs of cooling, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, down from a 0.4% increase in May [10] - Average work hours declined by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, leading to a 0.3% decrease in total hours worked, marking the weakest performance since July of the previous year [13] - The three-month annualized growth rate of wage income fell to 3.0%, halving from the 6.0% growth seen from December to March [15]