无视强劲非农！高盛坚持预计美联储年内将降息三次

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields, indicating an increased likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than previously expected [1] - The updated predictions for year-end yields are 3.45% for the two-year Treasury and 4.20% for the ten-year Treasury, down from earlier estimates of 3.85% and 4.50% respectively [1] - The revision follows Goldman Sachs economists adjusting their expectations for Fed rate cuts, now anticipating cuts in September, October, and December, compared to a previous expectation of only one cut by year-end [1] Group 2 - The task of predicting U.S. Treasury yields has become increasingly complex for Wall Street analysts, who must balance potential inflation impacts from tariffs against the expected weakening of real income and its effects on spending and economic growth [2] - Goldman Sachs' revised forecast is slightly more dovish than the market consensus, which anticipates a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.29% in the fourth quarter, while the yield was 4.35% before the holiday break [2] - Market signals from overnight-indexed swaps indicate a greater than 70% chance of a Fed rate cut before September, with another cut expected by year-end [2]