东北证券：自动驾驶行业爆发趋势明确 L2+/L3级渗透加速

Group 1: Industry Overview - The autonomous driving industry is experiencing explosive growth, with China's L2+ and above penetration rate increasing from 7.2% in 2022 to 18.7% in 2024, driven by regulatory breakthroughs and cost reductions [1] - The market expansion is supported by a high urban NOA installation rate exceeding 83% and a shift from "function validation" to "scale implementation" in the industry [1] Group 2: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia maintains a dominant position in the high-end market with its Orin and Thor chips, achieving a market share of 39.8% and an expected installation of 2.1 million autonomous driving domain control chips in 2024 [2] - The company's competitive advantage lies in its CUDA ecosystem, which enhances efficiency and reduces inference latency significantly [2] - Despite geopolitical risks, Nvidia continues to strengthen its market share in high-end models priced above 300,000 yuan [2] Group 3: Horizon Robotics' Strategy - Horizon Robotics leads the mid-to-low-end market (15-25 million yuan) with a strategy focused on "soft and hard collaboration + open platform," achieving a market share of 35.49% in 2024 [3] - The company has optimized performance, with its products offering higher frame rates and lower costs compared to Nvidia's offerings, facilitating the penetration of urban NOA into lower price segments [3] - Horizon is expected to increase its shipment volume to over 10 million units by 2025, with a market share potentially exceeding 40% [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition is characterized by a dual-track approach of technology and cost, with Nvidia defining the high-end ceiling and Horizon dominating the mid-to-low-end market through cost efficiency [4] - The industry is transitioning from "generational competition" to "scenario differentiation," paving the way for L3 level mass production [4] - Both companies are expected to expand their market shares as data loops and vehicle coverage increase, with Nvidia likely to maintain its high-end dominance and Horizon expanding into higher-end markets [4]