【世界说】摩根大通：关税带来高昂成本 或致美国雇主损失823亿美元

Core Insights - The current tariff policy under the Trump administration imposes a direct cost pressure of up to $82.3 billion on a specific group of U.S. companies, which may lead to price increases, layoffs, hiring freezes, or profit margin compression [1][2][4] - The analysis quantifies the direct impact of tariffs on companies with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, which employ about one-third of the private sector workforce in the U.S. [2] - Retail and wholesale sectors are particularly vulnerable to the impact of import taxes, contradicting the claim that foreign manufacturers would bear the tariff costs [2][4] Financial Implications - If the initial tariffs remain unchanged, the companies involved could face an additional cost of $187.6 billion [4] - The average cost burden of $82.3 billion translates to approximately $2,080 per employee, equating to 3.1% of the average annual salary [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that companies may pass on 60% of the tariff costs to consumers, while the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggests that under 10% or 25% tariffs, companies might transfer about half of the costs to consumers [4] Market Reactions - The announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April led to panic in financial markets, followed by a 90-day negotiation period during which most imported goods faced a 10% baseline tax [4] - Major U.S. companies like Amazon, Costco, and Walmart have temporarily mitigated the impact of tariffs by stockpiling inventory before the implementation [2]