特斯拉危机四伏｜车圈脉动 Vol.1

Core Insights - Tesla has not launched a new model in six years and is shifting focus from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence and political engagement [1][2] - Approximately 70% of Tesla's revenue still comes from vehicle sales, with 20% from battery storage systems [2] - The recent launch of Robotaxi is seen as Tesla's only timely product in the last five years, representing a new narrative for the company [3] Recent Developments - Tesla's Q2 2025 delivery volume was 384,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 13.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth [9] - The company is undergoing a strategic shift, moving from a traditional car manufacturer to a technology-focused entity, emphasizing "断舍离+孤注一掷" (letting go and taking risks) [10] - High-profile executive departures, including Omid Afshar, indicate internal pressures as Musk takes direct control of sales in Europe and North America [11][12] Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces significant competition in China, with Xiaomi's YU7 achieving lock orders comparable to Tesla's six-month sales in the region [4] - In Europe, Tesla's sales have nearly halved this year, and its market share in China has dropped from a peak of 15% to 7.6% [13] - Competitors like BYD and Xiaomi are producing more diverse and cost-effective vehicles, challenging Tesla's market position [13] Strategic Challenges - Tesla's shift from being an electric vehicle leader to focusing on autonomous driving and AI represents a high-risk gamble [14][15] - The company is abandoning plans for a cheaper model, "Model 2," to concentrate on high-barrier technologies like Robotaxi and humanoid robots [11][15] - Concerns about maintaining brand premium are rising, with gross margins declining from a peak of 30.5% to 16.3% [15] Future Considerations - The potential expiration of U.S. electric vehicle tax credits in September 2025 could result in a loss of $1.2 billion in annual revenue for Tesla [15] - The success of Tesla's next-generation Full Self-Driving (FSD) chip and its ability to expand in the L4 autonomous driving space remains uncertain [15] - The company must adapt its product strategy to counter the strong presence of Chinese brands in both European and Chinese markets [15]