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颐海国际(01579.HK):渠道节奏优化 高分红增强估值支撑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company is accelerating its overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, with established industrial centers in Thailand and Malaysia, aiming to replicate domestic channel and supply chain efficiencies [1] - The company has launched three major product series in Southeast Asia, including hot pot base, compound seasonings, and convenient instant foods, targeting various local channels such as KA supermarkets, wholesale, and e-commerce [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery in internal growth, with projected revenue of 6.54 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 6.4% increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 13.3% to 740 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company is maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 94.5% for 2024, signaling stable cash flow and operational strength, which helps to stabilize shareholder return expectations [2] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 842 million, 948 million, and 1.028 billion yuan respectively, due to slower-than-expected recovery in third-party business and increased expenses [2] - The company is assigned a target price of 15.1 HKD for 2025, based on a 17x PE ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating despite short-term profit pressures [2]