2025年10月21日 证券研究报告 | 食品饮料行业专题：餐饮供应链板块梳理 基本面磨底信号明显，关注板块向上弹性 行业研究 · 行业专题 食品饮料·食品加工Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张向伟 联系人：王新雨 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn 021-60875135 S0980523090001 wangxinyu8@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心结论：基本面磨底信号明显，关注板块向上弹性 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 行业：基本面磨底，估值水平处于低位。截至10月17日，2025年年初以来调味品指数（申万）下跌6.1%，跑输沪深300指数24.3个百分 点，跑输食品饮料板块3.5个百分点；预加工食品指数（申万）下跌6.4%，跑输沪深300指数24.6个百分点，跑输食品饮料板块3.8个百分 点。8月以来食品饮料板块在市场轮动下上涨3.0%，调味品与食饮趋势基本一致，主要源于海天等大市值标的与大盘共振；预加工食品在 弱预期、弱现实中下跌0.6%。餐饮供应链基本面磨底趋势明显，调味品板块龙头有所改善，而机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [1][4][5]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a divergence in fundamentals, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring third-quarter performance [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for stock price increases due to low expectations and the possibility of demand recovery, particularly in the snack, beverage, and frozen food segments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.16% this week, with A-shares down 0.20% and H-shares up 0.42%, indicating defensive allocation demand [1]. - The top performers in the sector included Zhuangyuan Pasture (21.07%), Yangyuan Beverage (16.80%), and Guangming Meat Industry (6.48%) [1]. 2. Alcoholic Beverages - The report notes that the liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with a focus on changes in the industry as the autumn sugar market approaches. Recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu for their strategic advantages and growth potential [2][10]. - The report anticipates a 15-20% decline in sales volume during the upcoming holiday season, with a shift towards mass-market consumption [10]. 3. Beverages - The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage showing strong performance. The report suggests focusing on the growth of sugar-free tea and energy drinks [2][15]. - The beverage sector's revenue increased by 18% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, despite entering the off-season [15]. 4. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi are expected to perform well [3][12]. - The snack industry is transitioning from channel-driven growth to category-driven growth, increasing competition among brands [12]. 5. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is seeing a gradual recovery in demand, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements by 2025 [14]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory clearance and new product performance in the dairy supply chain [13][14]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Baba Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Weilong, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have shown strong performance and positive earnings expectations [3][16]. - The report suggests that any changes in supply and demand dynamics could catalyze stock price increases, particularly in segments with high growth potential [3][4].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 頤海國際控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01579 | 說明 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 50, ...

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is currently at a bottoming phase, with strong players continuing to thrive [4] - The market has underperformed due to weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, with A-share food and beverage sector down 4.7% year-to-date, while H-share food and beverage sector increased by 29.5% [4] - There is a notable divergence among product categories, with alcoholic beverages facing pressure while mass-market products show signs of improvement, particularly in leading brands [4] Market Indicators - The trading volume, open interest, and valuation of the food and beverage sector are at historically low levels, with the sector's trading volume in A-shares dropping below 2% [9][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for food and beverage has been declining since 2021, with categories like liquor and beer at historically low percentiles [12][16] Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the need for a top-down approach to assess the investment value of leading companies like Kweichow Moutai, which holds a 31% weight in the food and beverage sector [27] - A bottom-up approach is also suggested to identify rapidly growing segments or companies in recovery [27] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on policy-sensitive sectors such as liquor and the restaurant supply chain, highlighting companies like Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Haidilao [4] - Strong brands in the mass-market segment are also recommended, including Nongfu Spring, Dongpeng Beverage, and Yili Group [4] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in liquor consumption as the impact of recent policies diminishes, with positive signals expected from the supply side [4] - The fourth quarter is projected to see improvements in key indicators for the liquor sector, including the price of Moutai [4] Performance Forecast - For Q3 2025, Kweichow Moutai is expected to generate revenue of 1,863.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, while Luzhou Laojiao is projected to see a 10% decline in revenue [49][50] - The report provides detailed forecasts for various companies, indicating expected revenue and profit changes for the upcoming quarters [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, indicating stability in the market. Spot cost indices for soft drinks, beer, instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, and seasonings changed by +0.97%, +0.51%, +0.26%, -0.13%, -0.44%, and -0.57% respectively, while futures cost indices changed by -1.08%, +1.06%, -1.06%, -1.67%, -0.78%, and -0.06% respectively [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have decreased by 3.71% and 4.95% respectively [12][32]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.41% and -6.71% respectively [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.67%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.36% and -3.93% respectively [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.26% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.23% and -6.06% respectively [22][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.44% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.78%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.3% and -3.37% respectively [25][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks rose by 0.97% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -4.19% and -10.86% respectively [28][37].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Summary of Yihai International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yihai International - **Industry**: Food and Seasoning Products Key Points B-end Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yihai International's B-end revenue grew over 130% year-on-year to 160 million RMB, driven by the newly established small B team which has opened over 1,000 clients contributing over 10 million RMB in revenue [2][6][7] - The company expects B-end business revenue to double for the full year of 2025 and maintain high growth rates in the following years [2][7] - The small B team's gross margin is over 30%, which is beneficial for overall profitability [6] Overseas Market Performance - Yihai International's overseas market revenue reached 260 million RMB in the first half of 2025, with third-party revenue accounting for approximately 73%, reflecting a nearly 50% year-on-year growth [2][9] - The company anticipates a 30% growth in overseas business for the full year, with a sustainable annual growth rate of 20%-30% in the coming years [2][11][10] C-end Market Performance - The C-end market performance was relatively flat, although market share for hot pot beef tallow and dipping sauces increased [2][17] - The company launched cost-effective instant products to penetrate lower-tier markets, which impacted gross margins [2][18] Strategic Initiatives - Yihai International is reducing reliance on distributor channels and focusing on building its own small B team to better match end-user demands [2][8] - The company is implementing a direct distribution model to reduce channel profit payments, aiming to optimize logistics and improve product matching [4][23] Cost and Profitability - Sales expense ratio increased in the first half of 2025 due to the establishment of the small B team and logistics costs, but is expected to stabilize in the second half [4][33] - The gross margin for related parties decreased year-on-year but remained stable quarter-on-quarter, with expectations for stability moving forward [4][24] Future Outlook - The company does not have specific KPIs for overseas market share but sees significant potential in the B-end market, which is larger than the C-end market [15][27] - Yihai International plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio and has no current plans for stock buybacks [34][36] Competitive Advantages - Yihai International's competitive advantages in the small B market include lower prices compared to competitors and guaranteed product quality, supported by its status as a core supplier for Haidilao [9] - The company is leveraging advanced technologies to enhance production efficiency and product quality [9] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The Thai factory's capacity utilization is currently low due to licensing delays and product acceptance issues, but the company is working to improve collaboration with B-end clients in Thailand and Malaysia [2][12] - The overall market remains fragmented with low concentration, primarily due to overcapacity, but Yihai International maintains competitiveness through its production capabilities [28][30] New Product Strategies - The company is focusing on high-cost performance products in the instant food sector, targeting specific regions for promotion rather than a nationwide rollout [18][20] - New product promotion strategies have shifted towards direct collaboration with key accounts, improving product-market fit and reducing promotional costs [21][22] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Yihai International's conference call, highlighting its performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

頤海國際控股有限公司 YIHAI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號 Stock Code: 1579 (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) Interim Report 2025 中期報告 CONTENTS 目錄 | Definitions | 釋義 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | Corporate Information | 公司資料 | 6 | | Financial Summary | 財務摘要 | 10 | | Management Discussion and Analysis | 管理層討論與分析 | 11 | | Corporate Governance and Other Information | 企業管治及其他資料 | 31 | | Interim Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet | 中期簡明綜合資產負債表 | 44 | | Interim Condensed Consolida ...

Summary of Yihai International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yihai International - **Date**: September 12, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - **Butter Products**: Achieved approximately 20% growth due to low-priced product strategy and expansion into lower-tier markets [2][3] - **Instant Food Products**: High-priced products like small hot pots showed weak performance due to price sensitivity, while low-priced instant foods in the 7-8 RMB range, such as the "Home Cooking" series, gained popularity [2][3] - **Seasoning Market**: Characterized by regional flavor preferences, with few national bestsellers; the company adapts products to local tastes through small B-end partnerships [2][8] Growth Drivers - **Geographic Expansion**: Growth driven by expansion into new regions and customized collaborations with KA channels, leading to double-digit growth in products like fish seasoning and 24 dishes [3][4] - **Small B Customer Strategy**: Focus on direct engagement with small B customers to enhance growth potential, with a dedicated team to address regional taste variations [5][6] - **Product Development**: Sales-driven product development allows for timely market feedback, improving new product success rates [10] Financial Performance - **Revenue Contribution**: In the first half of 2025, revenue from food companies was 155 million RMB, primarily from large B customers, while small B customers contributed around 10 million RMB [5] - **Profit Margins**: Small B customers have higher profit margins (up to 30%) compared to large B customers, which could enhance overall profitability as the small B segment grows [5] Future Outlook - **Overseas Market Expansion**: The Thai factory is set to produce localized products, with a focus on enhancing brand recognition and product diversity in Southeast Asia [16][20] - **Cost Management**: Efforts to reform third-party C-end channels to improve profitability and reduce costs [4][19] - **Sales Strategy**: Direct sales to KA channels and reduced reliance on distributors to enhance margins and product alignment with market needs [14][12] Challenges and Considerations - **Price Stability**: Seasoning prices have remained stable, with a focus on maintaining high price segments while introducing low-priced products selectively [11] - **Market Acceptance**: Local acceptance of foreign brands in overseas markets remains a challenge, impacting production capacity utilization [17] - **Investment in Overseas Operations**: Higher costs associated with overseas operations due to staffing and regulatory requirements, with plans to increase marketing efforts as business scales [19] Performance Projections - **Second Half Expectations**: Anticipated double-digit growth in third-party business, with potential improvements in associated revenue due to lower base effects from the first half [21]

Summary of Yihai International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yihai International - **Industry**: Food and Seasoning Products Key Points Industry and Market Performance - Yihai International's overseas business grew over 30% in the first half of the year, with third-party business growth nearing 50% [2][4] - The company is penetrating the Southeast Asian market through distributors, focusing on the Chinese community and gradually entering mainstream local markets [2][4] - The B-end market shows significant potential, with expectations for continued doubling growth in the second half of the year, despite a potential slowdown next year due to a higher base [2][3] Financial Performance and Projections - The overseas market's profit margin is currently lower than the domestic market, with third-party gross margins around 50% but less favorable cost-effectiveness [5][6] - By 2025, the overseas business scale is projected to reach approximately 200 million RMB, with operational costs impacting profitability [6] - By 2027, the overseas business is expected to achieve a cost-effectiveness ratio similar to the domestic market, potentially reaching comparable net profit levels [6] Product Development and Strategy - The company has made progress in KA channels, providing customized products for major retailers like Walmart and Hema [2][7] - The introduction of new flavors is challenging due to the overall weakness in the restaurant industry, leading to a focus on regional products rather than nationwide hits [8][9] - The company plans to enhance its product structure by increasing the proportion of small B customers, which have higher gross margins [16][23] Cost Management and Profitability - Raw material costs are expected to remain stable, with minor increases not significantly impacting overall profitability [15] - The company aims to maintain gross margins between 23% and 25% through self-production of key ingredients [14][15] - Net profit is influenced by fluctuating expense rates, with expectations for slight improvement in the second half of the year [17] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the B-end market, anticipating continued high growth rates as the restaurant industry recovers [23][22] - Yihai International's competitive edge lies in its pricing and quality advantages in the B-end market, allowing for market share growth despite industry challenges [20][21] Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - The company maintains a generous dividend policy with no significant changes anticipated [18][19] - There are no major capital expenditure plans, as current production capacity is sufficient [19] Conclusion - Yihai International is positioned for growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability and market share in the competitive food and seasoning industry. The focus on B-end market expansion and cost management will be crucial for sustaining growth in the coming years [2][3][23]