高盛谈“反内卷”：钢铁、水泥业利润有望改善

Core Insights - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee on July 1 has signaled a shift in policy towards developing a "unified market" and addressing excessive competition leading to price declines [1][5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the steel industry will accelerate its 50 million ton production cut plan, with a projected 6% year-on-year decline in output for the second half of the year, leading to improved profit margins [1][2] - The cement industry is expected to see a significant reduction in excess capacity, with 22-27% of surplus capacity likely to be eliminated, resulting in a potential increase in average gross profit to 80 yuan per ton or higher [4] Steel Industry - Goldman Sachs estimates a 70% probability of executing the steel production cut plan, which could lead to a 12% reduction in crude steel output in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half [2][3] - The implied price difference in rebar futures suggests that steel profit margins could expand by nearly 200 yuan per ton [3] Cement Industry - The unauthorized excess clinker capacity is estimated to exceed 400 million tons, accounting for about 18% of the total industry capacity, with an additional 277-377 million tons facing exit pressure [4] - The potential closure of unauthorized and high-energy-consuming capacity could raise the industry's capacity utilization rate from 50% to 70% [4] Policy Direction - The recent policy shift indicates a move from short-term measures against "involution" to a more fundamental capacity exit mechanism, which is expected to lead to sustainable profit improvements in related industries [5]