Amazon(US:AMZN) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-07 07:45Core Viewpoint - Amazon's upcoming 2025 Prime Day event is expected to see a daily sales increase of approximately 10% year-over-year, driven by extended promotional periods and significant discounts [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The 11th annual Prime Day will take place from July 8 to July 11 across 26 countries, featuring millions of discounts across more than 35 product categories [1]. - This year's event duration has been extended to four days, doubling the two-day duration of the past six years [1]. Group 2: Sales Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts that daily sales during the four-day event will increase by about 10% compared to the 2024 Prime Day, contributing to an overall expected net sales growth of 9.6% for Amazon in Q3 2025, reaching nearly $175 billion [2]. - The projected growth does not account for potential additional revenue from advertising, subscription/Prime membership growth, or other parts of the Prime ecosystem [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Prime Day event is anticipated to stimulate early back-to-school shopping, with factors such as third-party seller participation, rapid delivery, and a focus on essential goods enhancing consumer purchasing intent [2]. - Amazon's regional strategy has led to significant operational improvements, enabling better inventory management to meet peak demand during Prime Day [2][3]. Group 4: Inventory and Economic Considerations - The extended event duration suggests that Amazon has sufficient inventory, likely due to proactive procurement in recent months, despite concerns over tariffs affecting third-party sellers [3]. - Morgan Stanley acknowledges ongoing macroeconomic pressures but believes that substantial discounts and extended promotional periods will stabilize demand trends as consumers seek value [3]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive investment outlook on Amazon, setting a target price of $240 for December 2025, based on an expected free cash flow of $75 billion for 2026, applying a valuation multiple of approximately 32.5 times free cash flow [3].