Apple(US:AAPL) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-07 07:45Core Insights - The Apple App Store is experiencing significant structural changes, with a notable shift towards non-gaming applications, while maintaining growth momentum through Q3 2025 [1][4] - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of $235, reflecting a 29x expected P/E ratio for 2026 [1][4] Revenue Performance - Global App Store revenue reached $8.4 billion in Q3 2025, marking an 11.5% year-over-year increase, with June's monthly growth accelerating to 12% [2] - Gaming applications remain the largest revenue source at 45%, but their share has declined from over 50%, indicating a shift in user spending habits towards non-gaming sectors [2] - Productivity applications saw a remarkable 107% year-over-year growth, highlighting the monetization potential of tool-based software [2] Regional Market Analysis - Revenue growth in China was 4%, lagging behind the global average, while the EU market experienced a 21% year-over-year increase in June, likely due to enhanced localized services and optimized payment policies [3] - Global quarterly download volume reached 8.6 billion (+4.3%), but downloads in China decreased by 0.8% to 1.488 billion, suggesting a plateau in user base expansion [3] Application Ecosystem Changes - Productivity (107%), graphics and design (39%), and utility applications (30%) led the growth in app categories, indicating accelerated monetization of enterprise services and efficiency tools [3] - Photography and video applications grew by 32%, reflecting sustained demand for short video content, while sports applications saw a 6% decline, marking the only negative growth category [3] - Despite gaming applications accounting for nearly half of the revenue, their declining share signifies a transition from "content is king" to "service is king" [3] Risks and Opportunities - Three potential risks identified include a strong dollar impacting overseas revenue conversion, policy uncertainties from cases like Epic Games, and increased competition from the Android ecosystem [4] - Despite these risks, Bank of America maintains a positive outlook, citing the resilience of service business and ecosystem barriers to mitigate cyclical risks [4] Investment Logic - Apple is transitioning towards a more balanced revenue structure through the App Store, with the decline in gaming revenue share reflecting ecosystem maturity rather than a downturn [5] - As the user base reaches saturation, deep engagement and high-value services are expected to drive future growth [5] - Even in a tightening regulatory environment, the App Store continues to demonstrate a 12% growth rate, solidifying its position as the largest digital distribution platform globally [5]