Stellantis(US:STLA) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-07 08:52Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a "neutral" rating on Stellantis (STLA.US) with a target price of €9 (approximately $10.57) based on June U.S. auto sales data, indicating ongoing challenges in the company's sales performance and market share [1] Group 1: U.S. Auto Sales Overview - In June, U.S. new vehicle registrations totaled 1.254 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million, down from 17.8 million in March [1] - Stellantis' new vehicle registrations in June fell by 21% year-on-year, with a second-quarter decline of 11%, and a year-to-date market share of 7.4%, down 130 basis points [1][4] - The overall U.S. market saw a second-quarter growth of 2%, reaching 4.2 million vehicles sold, while Stellantis' second-quarter sales were 306,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11% [3] Group 2: Market Share and Competitive Position - Stellantis' market share in the U.S. for 2025 is projected at 7.4%, compared to 9.0% in 2024, indicating a significant decline in competitive positioning against leaders like GM (17.6%) and Toyota (15.2%) [4] - The company is identified as a market share loser this year, with a decline of 130 basis points, while competitors like GM and Ford have gained market share [4] Group 3: Sales Performance and Inventory Management - Stellantis' average dealer discount per vehicle is $4,842, which is higher than competitors like Ford ($3,700) and GM ($3,500), although it has decreased from a recent high of $6,400 [5] - Dealer inventory for Stellantis is currently around 270,000 vehicles, with a supply period of approximately 68 days, which is better controlled compared to previous levels [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Citigroup views Stellantis as a "deep value" asset, suggesting that the company's low valuation reflects below-sustainable operating margins [7] - The company may achieve some improvements in sales and market share in the second half of 2025, but a comprehensive U.S. cost plan is deemed necessary for a true recovery [7]