Micron Technology(US:MU) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-07 09:13Core Viewpoint - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to experience tight supply and demand until 2027, driven by technological iterations and AI demand, with SK Hynix and Micron leading the market due to their technological and capacity advantages [1][2]. Supply and Demand Trends - HBM supply tightness is projected to persist through 2027, with a gradual easing of oversupply expected in 2026-2027. Channel inventory is anticipated to increase by 1-2 weeks, reaching a healthy level [2]. - The delay in Samsung's HBM certification and the strong demand growth from NVIDIA's Rubin GPU are the main factors contributing to the current supply-demand tension [2]. - HBM4 supply is expected to significantly increase by 2026, accounting for 30% of total bit supply, with HBM4 and HBM4E combined expected to exceed 70% by 2027 [2]. Demand Drivers - HBM bit demand is forecasted to accelerate again in 2027, primarily driven by the Vera Rubin GPU and AMD MI400 [3]. - From 2024 to 2027, the CAGR for bit demand from ASICs, NVIDIA, and AMD is projected to exceed 50%, with NVIDIA expected to dominate demand growth [3]. - Sovereign AI demand is emerging as a key structural driver, with various countries investing heavily in national AI infrastructure to ensure data sovereignty and security [3]. Pricing and Cost Structure - Recent discussions around HBM pricing are influenced by Samsung's aggressive pricing strategy to capture market share in HBM3E and HBM4 [4]. - HBM4 is expected to have a price premium of 30-40% over HBM3E12Hi to compensate for higher costs, with logic chip costs being a significant factor [4]. Market Landscape - SK Hynix is expected to lead the HBM market, while Micron is likely to gain market share due to its capacity expansion efforts in Taiwan and Singapore [5]. - Micron's HBM revenue grew by 50% quarter-over-quarter, with a revenue run rate of $1.5 billion, indicating a stronger revenue-capacity conversion trend compared to Samsung [6]. Industry Impact - HBM is driving the DRAM industry into a five-year upcycle, with HBM expected to account for 19% of DRAM revenue in 2024 and 56% by 2030 [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3% from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by the increasing sales proportion of HBM [7]. - Capital expenditures for HBM are expected to continue growing, as memory manufacturers focus on expanding capacity to meet rising HBM demand [7].