FII(SH:601138) Ge Long Hui·2025-07-07 10:03Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on the supply chain of Nvidia as the A-share market enters the half-year report preview period, with Industrial Fulian showing significant stock performance and promising earnings forecasts [1][2]. Financial Performance - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit of 67.27 billion to 69.27 billion yuan for Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.72% to 52.11% [5] - The company anticipates a total net profit of 119.58 billion to 121.58 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a growth of 36.84% to 39.12% [5] - The Q2 net profit growth rate is the highest since Q2 2021 [5] Business Segments - The cloud computing segment has experienced rapid growth, with overall revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year [7] - Revenue from AI servers has grown by over 60%, while revenue from cloud service provider servers has increased by more than 150% [7] - Industrial Fulian maintains a leading market share in core products for major clients, with significant growth in shipments of advanced AI computing products [7] Market Trends - The demand for 800G switches is rising, with Industrial Fulian's revenue from this segment in Q2 reaching three times the expected total for 2024 [11] - The transition from 100G/200G to 400G/800G products is driven by increasing data traffic and the expansion of data center businesses [10] - Dell'Oro Group predicts that 800G switch ports will surpass 400G as the mainstream configuration this year [11] Future Outlook - Analysts expect Industrial Fulian's profits to reach 330 billion yuan and 392 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with target market valuations of 825 billion yuan and a stock price target of 41.54 yuan based on a 25x PE ratio [11] - Huatai Securities views Industrial Fulian as a core beneficiary of AI computing infrastructure, assigning a target price of 30 yuan based on a 21x PE ratio [12]