KVB外汇:中期内利率降至零的风险不可忽略

Core Insights - Federal Reserve researchers, including New York Fed President John Williams, concluded that the Fed cannot assume its benchmark interest rate will remain far from zero in the future [1][3] - There is a 9% probability that the federal funds rate will hit the "zero lower bound" in the next seven years, with current rate uncertainty exacerbating this risk [3][4] - The analysis indicates that market expectations regarding interest rates are the primary driver of fluctuations in the zero lower bound risk [4] Interest Rate Projections - The probability of rates returning to zero in the next two years is only 1%, with historical context showing rates were at 0% to 0.25% during the 2008 financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic [5] - From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised rates 11 times, bringing the target range to 5.25% to 5.5%, significantly distancing from the zero lower bound [5] - Currently, the Fed has maintained rates between 4.25% and 4.5% since September of the previous year, with discussions ongoing about potential rate cuts [5] Market Reactions and Predictions - Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh expressed sympathy for the President's frustration with the Fed's current rate policy, suggesting that rates should be lowered further [6] - Goldman Sachs economists predict a likelihood of rate cuts in September, citing smaller-than-expected impacts from tariff policies and stronger deflationary forces [6][7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3% - 3.25%, still above the zero lower bound, while maintaining a long-term view on neutral rates and economic conditions [7]