Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-09 07:04Group 1 - Goldman Sachs research team has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts in September instead of December, expecting three cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year [1][3] - The likelihood of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, driven by a reassessment of tariff policy impacts, with evidence showing that the inflationary impact of tariffs is lower than previously expected [3] - The labor market's subtle changes, including increased job-seeking difficulty, support the case for rate cuts, with potential downward risks from seasonal factors and immigration policy changes [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its S&P 500 index return expectations, projecting returns of 3%, 6%, and 11% over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, with target levels of 6400, 6600, and 6900 points [4] - The adjustment in return expectations is based on earlier and deeper monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, lower bond yields, and strong fundamentals in large-cap stocks [4] - The continuous improvement in liquidity conditions is expected to support market gains, with an estimated inflow of approximately $80 billion into global equity markets over the next month [4]