高盛：三大阻力压制，美元很难重拾“避险”属性

Core Viewpoint - The traditional safe-haven status of the US dollar is facing significant challenges this year, with a notable weakening of its risk-hedging properties, prompting global investors to rethink their foreign exchange hedging strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Weakening Safe-Haven Status - The dollar has frequently depreciated during US stock market pullbacks this year, with the probability of simultaneous declines in stocks and the dollar rising from a historical average of 16% to 33% [2]. - The simultaneous decline of stocks, US Treasuries, and the dollar has become more frequent, indicating a decrease in the overall attractiveness of US assets [2]. Group 2: Factors Limiting Dollar Recovery - High policy uncertainty, including issues related to tariff policies and Federal Reserve independence, is a primary reason for the dollar's inability to quickly regain its traditional safe-haven status [3]. - The trend of capital diversification and a narrowing advantage in US returns further supports the rationale for portfolio diversification away from the dollar [3]. - Concerns over fiscal stability may resurface, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop of "widening spreads leading to dollar depreciation," exacerbating fears of capital outflows and Treasury sell-offs [3]. Group 3: Adjustments in Foreign Exchange Hedging Strategies - Goldman Sachs' quantitative analysis indicates a significant change in the effectiveness of foreign exchange hedging strategies, with foreign investors achieving higher average returns on hedged US stocks compared to unhedged strategies over the past six months [4]. - European investors have seen the most substantial benefits from hedging strategies, while Canadian investors have also experienced improved results [4]. - Despite the benefits, hedging costs remain a limiting factor for some investors, although a potential Fed rate cut may encourage adjustments from investors in regions with lower domestic rates, such as Japan [4]. Group 4: Potential for Continued Dollar Depreciation - While Goldman Sachs does not foresee a permanent shift in the dollar's safe-haven appeal, the current environment resembles a mild depreciation similar to 2017 rather than a historical crash [5]. - The increasing pathways leading to dollar weakness and the rising likelihood of atypical correlations suggest a risk of more significant and prolonged depreciation than currently anticipated [5]. - A potential cycle of "capital flight leading to dollar decline leading to further capital flight" could result in a more substantial and longer-lasting depreciation than expected [5].