多家国际投资机构下调阿里目标价：大摩与汇丰都下调至150美元，汇丰预计阿里26年外卖每单亏2.7元

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley and HSBC have both lowered Alibaba's target price to $150, reflecting concerns over the company's short-term profitability due to increased investments in its food delivery and instant retail businesses [3][5]. Group 1: Target Price Adjustments - Morgan Stanley reduced Alibaba's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) target price from $180 to $150, citing significant investments of approximately 100 billion RMB in the food delivery and instant retail sectors during the first fiscal quarter ending in June [3]. - HSBC also lowered its target price from $176 to $150 while maintaining a "buy" rating, indicating that the stock price decline has largely accounted for the expected earnings adjustments [5]. Group 2: Investment and Competition - Alibaba is increasing its subsidies through the Taobao Flash Purchase platform to capture more market share in the food delivery and instant retail sectors, leading to heightened competition, particularly from Meituan and JD.com [3]. - Meituan has launched aggressive promotions, including large food delivery coupons and "zero-cost purchases," while JD.com announced a "Double Hundred Plan" to invest over 10 billion RMB to support benchmark brands in achieving significant sales [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect Alibaba's investment in food delivery and instant retail to double to 200 billion RMB in the second fiscal quarter, which may lead to a more than 40% year-on-year decline in EBITA for its local services [3]. - HSBC forecasts that Alibaba's food delivery business will incur a loss of 2.7 RMB per order and instant shopping will lose 3.7 RMB per order, with an overall loss in local services projected at 55 billion RMB [5]. Group 4: Cloud Business Outlook - Despite the challenges in its core businesses, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about Alibaba's cloud business, projecting a 22% year-on-year revenue growth and stable profit margins at 8% for the first fiscal quarter [4]. - The integration of AI technology in cloud computing and e-commerce is seen as a key driver for Alibaba's long-term competitive advantage [4].