不要与趋势对抗！高盛顶级交易员：三大周期共振，夏季"融涨行情"或将来临

Core Viewpoint - Multiple favorable factors are driving risk assets higher, with Goldman Sachs traders predicting a "melt-up" market this summer due to strong momentum in AI, bank stocks, Nvidia, Chinese equities, Bitcoin, and copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Cycles - Three major cycles are creating a bullish environment for U.S. stocks, with the economy in the mid-to-late stage of the business cycle, showing no signs of recession and strong profit growth, alongside ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts [2][3] - The market sentiment cycle is turning positive but has not yet reached a euphoric state, indicating further room for growth [4] - Structural cycles show low macro volatility combined with a digital productivity boom, reminiscent of the 1990s environment [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Cyclical stocks are expected to outperform defensive stocks, with bank stocks showing particularly strong performance, indicating that they are a key indicator of economic health [6] - Chinese, U.S., and European bank stocks have all seen increases, reinforcing the view that bank stocks are the "beta" of the economy [6] Group 3: Inflation and Growth - Real inflation is broadly cooling, and volatility is returning to low levels, with emerging markets also showing signs of recovery [7] - The market has moved past concerns about growth, with inflation remaining a primary risk for most clients, but real inflation is declining [8] - The combination of slowing inflation and accelerating profits is expected to lead to an expansion in valuation multiples, creating a favorable environment for the stock market, especially in a low-volatility context [8] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Signs of recovery are observed in China and emerging markets, with the current environment likened to the emerging market rebound from 2009 to 2015, albeit with different leading sectors focused on technology, AI, and local themes [8] - Breakthrough signals from the Chinese stock market and Bitcoin indicate rising risk appetite and the formation of a re-inflation theme in emerging markets [8]