下半年还有5000亿美元将流入美股，主要来自散户

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan expects nearly $500 billion to flow into the US stock market in the second half of the year, potentially driving the market up by 5%-10%. This prediction is primarily supported by retail investors, while the incremental contributions from hedge funds and institutional investors are limited [1][4]. Retail Investor Dynamics - Retail investors are projected to be the main driving force behind stock purchases, with a net buying total of $630 billion expected for 2025. Approximately $270 billion has already flowed in during the first half of 2025, indicating an anticipated $360 billion in the remaining months [1][4]. - The report downplays concerns regarding a recent slowdown in retail buying in May and June, attributing it to profit-taking after significant gains from leveraged ETFs. It anticipates a resumption of buying from retail investors starting in July [1][4]. Institutional Investor Analysis - The report highlights that institutional investors, including hedge funds, have limited capacity for further significant increases in their positions, as many are already at high levels. Structural selling from overseas institutions is also exerting downward pressure on US stocks [5][10]. - Macro hedge funds have returned to high positions after recovering from losses in April, but they are not expected to be major market drivers in the second half of the year, with the exception of quantitative funds that may still have room to increase their positions [7][10]. Potential Buying Forces - The report identifies risk parity funds and balanced mutual funds as potential buying forces for the second half of the year. If risk parity funds return to their average beta levels, they could contribute approximately $45 billion in net buying. Balanced mutual funds could add around $56 billion if their beta returns to long-term averages [11][11]. - Foreign investors, who have been absent from the US stock market since February, may also return if the dollar stabilizes, potentially adding $50 billion to $100 billion in buying power in the latter half of 2025 [14][14].