Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has raised concerns among investors, with predictions indicating a potential drop to 600 yuan per gram by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Predictions - The spot gold price in Shanghai has fallen from 834.6 yuan per gram in April to 765 yuan per gram, with brand gold jewelry prices dropping below 900 yuan per gram [1]. - On July 8, spot gold experienced a significant drop of 1.02%, reaching a low of 3298.7 USD per ounce (approximately 780 yuan per gram), marking a 6% decline from the April peak of 3509 USD [2]. - Analysts predict that if gold prices fall below 3300 USD, it could trigger automatic stop-loss orders worth 20 billion USD, leading to panic selling [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased from 78% to 63%, reducing the market's demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy are increasing, with "dovish" members advocating for rate cuts to combat inflation, while "hawkish" members warn of potential inflation from tariff policies [3]. - Geopolitical events, such as the Middle East drone attacks and rumors of a ceasefire in Ukraine, have shown to significantly impact gold prices, with the latter causing an 8% flash crash [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - The demand for gold jewelry is being affected by Trump's tariff policies, which are raising inflation but simultaneously suppressing consumer spending [5]. - In the domestic market, while the People's Bank of China is expected to increase gold reserves by 219 tons in 2024, the pace of accumulation is anticipated to slow down in 2025 due to high prices [5]. - Current gold jewelry prices include over 30% in brand premiums and processing fees, indicating that even if the base gold price drops to 600 yuan per gram, jewelry prices may not fall below 800 yuan per gram [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from 3100 USD to 3000 USD, while UBS recommends gradual accumulation at 3250 USD (approximately 730 yuan per gram) [6]. - Zijin Mining is increasing overseas gold mine acquisitions, suggesting that a price range of 700-750 yuan per gram is currently seen as a bottom [6]. - Investors who purchased gold at higher prices are facing difficult decisions, while those who entered the market at lower prices are relatively calm [6].
美联储降息突变，DeepSeek分析：2025年黄金价格会跌到600元