BOC AVIATION(HK:02588) Ge Long Hui·2025-07-12 18:52Group 1 - BOC Aviation (BOCA) delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, maintaining flat year-over-year (YoY) and increasing two quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), with a total of 24 aircraft delivered in 1H25, which is an increase of six YoY and four half-over-half (HoH) [1] - The firm’s self-owned fleet grew to 441 aircraft by the end of 1H25, up 12 YoY and six HoH, while the order book increased to 351, reflecting a growth of 132 YoY and 119 HoH [1] - Aircraft lease rates are trending upward, with the Airbus A320NEO lease rate rising approximately 6% YoY as of February 2025, supporting high-priced contract execution and potentially lifting gross lease rental yields [2] Group 2 - The firm sold 14 self-owned aircraft in 2Q25, an increase of three YoY and 10 QoQ, with a total of 18 self-owned aircraft sold in 1H25, also up three YoY [3] - The market value of the firm’s self-owned fleet exceeded book value by 15% as of the end of 2024, indicating that steady aircraft disposals could improve fleet quality and realize asset premiums [3] Group 3 - The firm has a higher exposure to floating-rate liabilities (27% at end-2024), making it more sensitive to interest rate cuts compared to leasing peers, with historical share price movements closely tied to US Treasury yields and interest rate cut expectations [5] - In previous periods of rising interest rate cut expectations, the firm’s share price increased by 18.7% from its trough to peak in November 2023 and climbed 26.2% by July 2024, suggesting potential short-term catalysts for share price [5] Group 4 - Improved aircraft deliveries are expected to drive up gross lease rental yields, while overseas interest rate cuts may lower financing costs, leading to a steady recovery in the firm’s return on equity (ROE) [6] - The firm’s historical average valuation has shown a strong correlation with its ROE, indicating that ROE expansion could provide room for a steady rise in valuation [6]