舜宇光学科技(2382.HK)：持续看好盈利超预期 光学规格提升+车载出货加速

Group 1: Mobile Camera Module and Lens Shipment Trends - In June, mobile camera module shipments increased by 11.1% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in 2025H1, primarily due to customer project cycle factors [1] - Mobile lens shipments in June decreased by 3.1% month-on-month and 12.7% year-on-year, with a year-on-year decline attributed to a focus on high-end projects [1] - Other lens shipments in June saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% but a year-on-year increase of 37.4%, driven by significant growth in IoT lens shipments and an increase in company market share [1] Group 2: Optical Specifications and Profitability - The continuous improvement in optical specifications is expected to drive better-than-expected profitability for mobile camera modules and lenses in 2025, with a projected global procurement value increase of 7.1% year-on-year [2] - The share of miniaturized and high-end products in the procurement value is expected to increase by 2.4 percentage points and 8.2 percentage points, respectively, reaching 5.2% and 42.6% [2] - The company aims to improve the profitability of mobile camera modules, focusing on high-end projects, with expected gross margins of nearly 10% for camera modules and nearly 30% for lenses in 2025 [2] Group 3: Automotive Lens Market Growth - In June, automotive lens shipments increased by 3.2% month-on-month and 44.6% year-on-year, indicating accelerated growth [2] - In 2025H1, automotive lens shipments rose by 21.7% year-on-year, exceeding the annual growth guidance of 15%-20% [3] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growth in the automotive lens market, with a projected shipment increase of nearly 25% in 2025 [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 6%, respectively, to RMB 3.828 billion and RMB 4.839 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 6.002 billion [3] - The growth logic for the company remains smooth in the short, medium, and long term, with valuation still having room for appreciation [3]