专家研判：奶业去产能需求持续，奶价有望一年内反转

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a need for capacity reduction as a key strategy for alleviating industry distress [2][4][10] - The bottom of the current milk price cycle has been established, with a potential reversal expected within a year, making the second half of this year or the first half of next year critical [10] Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2022, the dairy industry saw an increase of over 1 million dairy cows, resulting in excessive production capacity amid declining consumption [2][4] - The dairy farming sector is projected to incur cumulative income losses of 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, with losses from fresh milk powder reaching 20 billion yuan [2] Production Trends - The total production of raw milk in China is expected to decline by 2.8% in 2024, marking the first decrease since 2018 [3] - The number of dairy cows in the top 10 producing provinces is estimated to decrease by 6.7% by the end of 2024, with around 12 million dairy cows expected to be eliminated from the industry [3][4] Market Dynamics - Despite the acceleration of capacity reduction and favorable conditions such as rising international milk prices and falling feed costs, the domestic raw milk supply remains ample due to slowing downstream demand [4] - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces was 3.04 yuan/kg as of early July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5% [4] Strategic Recommendations - Industry leaders are advised to control the overall increase in dairy cow numbers to no more than 500,000 during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an annual increase capped at 100,000 [5] - Major dairy companies should enhance their self-sourced milk supply through mergers, equity stakes, and long-term management of social farms to stabilize foundational production capacity [4][5] Consumer Trends - There is a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, nutritious dairy products, with a notable increase in demand for B-end (commercial) dairy products, which currently sees 70%-80% of its market share dominated by imported brands [7] - The industry is responding to the evolving nutritional needs of various demographic groups by developing tailored products for different age segments [7][8] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see a significant adjustment in production capacity, with a projected decline exceeding 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [9] - The market is anticipated to reach a supply-demand balance by the third quarter of 2025, driven by the exit of smaller farms and consumption stimulus policies [9][10]