“著名反指”来了！美银最新机构调查：投资者以创纪录的速度重返风险资产

Core Insights - Global fund managers are entering risk assets at a record pace, pushing market sentiment to multi-month highs, but Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett warns this could trigger a sell signal due to the survey's reputation as a "notorious contrarian indicator" [1][2][11] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Investor risk appetite has surged at the fastest rate since 2001, with a significant increase in allocations to U.S. stocks and technology stocks [1][7] - Cash levels held by fund managers have dropped to 3.9%, below the 4.0% threshold, which is viewed as a sell signal by Bank of America [1][7] - The S&P 500 index continues to reach historical highs, bolstered by confidence in corporate earnings and the U.S. handling of trade disputes [1][7] Group 2: Key Drivers of Optimism - A major factor driving this risk appetite is the market's interpretation of the Trump administration's policy shift from "detox" to "gorge," suggesting a reliance on a significant fiscal bubble to support large financial measures [4][6] - The "Anything but Bonds" trading strategy is gaining traction globally, with U.S. Treasuries performing the worst at -1% while gold has seen a remarkable return of +114% [6][8] Group 3: Risk Exposure and Concerns - Risk levels in investor portfolios have reached the highest point since 2002, with significant increases in stock allocations, particularly in U.S. and Eurozone equities [7][10] - Despite the optimism, fund managers identify potential "tail risks," including tariffs leading to global economic recession and high inflation hindering Federal Reserve rate cuts [10] Group 4: Market Indicators and Predictions - The survey indicates that the current bullish sentiment may signal a potential profit-taking phase and a summer correction, as indicators suggest the market is nearing "overheated" conditions [12] - Hartnett anticipates that while there may be a risk of a pullback, a large-scale sell-off is unlikely in the summer due to controlled volatility in the bond market [13]