KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-15 17:07Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has continued to decline in 2025, reflecting a weakening demand in the high-end liquor market and a shift towards a more consumer-oriented pricing structure [1][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 25, 2025, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1830 CNY per bottle from 1915 CNY, a decrease of 85 CNY [1][2]. - The retail price on e-commerce platforms has also seen significant reductions, with some listings as low as 1760 CNY for a single bottle [3]. - Year-to-date, the price of Feitian Moutai has seen a cumulative decline of 440 CNY (19.82%) for scattered bottles and 485 CNY (20.95%) for original boxes [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to increased supply and weakened demand, with production capacity reaching 65,000 tons in 2024, a 12% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - The investment and collection demand for Moutai has decreased from 35% in 2020 to 18% in 2025, indicating a shift away from viewing Moutai as a financial asset [6][7]. Impact on Company Valuation - The decline in prices has led to a decrease in the market valuation of Kweichow Moutai, with its market cap falling below 2 trillion CNY, reflecting changing investor expectations regarding future profitability [7]. - The price drop is expected to influence the entire high-end liquor sector, including brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. Regulatory Environment - The introduction of stricter regulations on alcohol consumption in government settings has caused a short-term emotional impact on the liquor market, although the actual effect on sales is limited due to the reduced reliance on government consumption [9][10]. - The industry is facing pressures to manage inventory and control prices, with total inventory reaching 167.86 billion CNY in 2024 [10][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies are adapting by enhancing digital management and monitoring inventory through platforms like "i Moutai" to maintain pricing structures [10]. - There is a notable shift towards product innovation and diversification of sales channels, including international markets, to reduce dependence on domestic sales [10][11].