Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Shengmu, as a leading organic raw milk producer, is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-end organic milk driven by rising consumer spending levels [1][2] - China Shengmu is the first brand in China to obtain dual certification for organic standards from both China and the EU, covering the entire dairy industry value chain from pasture planting to high-end liquid milk production [1] - The company has a significant geographical advantage, operating in the Ulan Buh Desert of Inner Mongolia, recognized as a prime milk source, which enhances its competitive edge in ensuring milk quality and safety [1] Group 2 - Current raw milk prices have declined from a peak of 4.38 RMB/kg to 3.04 RMB/kg, but the decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in milk prices [2] - Beef prices have also stabilized after a decline in 2023, which, along with the expected recovery in milk prices, is anticipated to significantly improve the company's profit performance [2] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be -0.47 billion, 4.36 billion, and 7.09 billion RMB respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 5.5 for 2026, which is significantly lower than the average PE of comparable companies [2]
中国圣牧(01432.HK)：有机原料奶龙头 基本面亟待反转