Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-16 05:05Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement of tariffs by President Trump led to a significant market downturn, with the Nasdaq index dropping 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 222 points [2] - The Canadian dollar depreciated by 0.9% against the US dollar, indicating a bleak outlook for North American trade [2] - Gold prices surged to $3,337 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising tensions [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve were revealed, with 7 out of 19 decision-makers advocating for no rate cuts in 2025, while 8 supported two rate cuts, highlighting a significant divergence [4] - Fed Governor Waller publicly challenged Chairman Powell's cautious stance, advocating for a reduction in policy rates due to their restrictive nature [4][6] - Powell warned of the long-term consequences of the tariffs, emphasizing the need for careful policy decisions [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - June's non-farm payrolls showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, but the majority of new jobs were in government sectors, raising concerns about the private sector's performance [8] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1%, indicating a disconnect between inflation and consumer spending [8] - Goldman Sachs economists revised their forecast for the Fed's first rate cut from December to September, anticipating three cuts within the year based on key economic data [8] Group 4: Global Trade Implications - The tariffs imposed by the US have caused global supply chain disruptions, with manufacturers in countries like Myanmar and Cambodia expressing concerns over potential job losses [10] - The future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is under threat following the termination of trade negotiations with Canada [10] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 75%, reflecting market expectations of a shift in monetary policy [12] - The dollar index fell to 97.18, marking its largest half-year decline since the 1970s, while the euro approached a three-year high against the dollar [12] - Waller outlined a plan to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, suggesting a decrease in bank reserves and an increase in the proportion of short-term Treasury securities [12]